FOMC: OIS Pricing in Even More Cuts After June Meeting
-After the June FOMC meeting, the whole FOMC dated OIS curve is pricing in an additional 9bp to 17bp cuts vs 1 day before the meeting
-Market is fully pricing two 25bp cuts by September (just 2 meetings away), approx. three 25bp cuts by year end and four by June 2020!
-Several big name bank analysts changed their calls for an even more dovish Fed:
-Goldman saw the June meeting as a clear cut signal and now expect 50bp cuts by Sept (vs their prior call of no change this year)
-Morgan Stanley see a 50bp cut in July, NatWest see 50bp by Sept and JPM pulled forward expected rate cuts to July and Sept from prior Sept and Dec