There is a relationship that exists across GBP, EUR, USD markets, which is that the 10y swap rate is a linear function of the 5th forward LIBOR and the 5th-9th spread.
The views of InTouch Capital Markets on the “hawks” and “doves” at the European Central Bank (ECB), the FOMC and the Bank of England (BoE).
ITC - EGB Supply announcements and January syndication patterns
ITC - Quick JGBs - Closing in on zero
ITC Month-End Extension Estimates: Gilts: 0.00 US Tsy: 0.12 EGBs: 0.08
ITC: There has been a significant tightening between the 10y BTP-GGB spread: Year-to-date; the spread is down from 138bps to its lowest levels of 16.5bp.
On Thursday at 12:00 GMT, BoE will issue Policy Decision Current Policy: Bank Rate: 0.75%; Asset Purchase Programme: £435bn; Corp Bond Purchases: up to £10bn In Brief: - Analysts expect no change in monetary policy including rates & QE - MPC likely to vote 9-0 for keeping all policy unchanged - Most analysts believe everyone on the MPC is firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode due to uncertainty created by the extension of the Brexit deadline and the upcoming Dec 12th general election.
USTs have underperformed swaps in the past couple of weeks but Bunds have outperformed. The chart below shows the contrasting movements in the invoice spreads. Bunds may well be benefiting from the start of the next phase of QE.
Japanese investors hit Treasuries cash register – temporarily – into end-Sep fiscal half-year end
The full calendar of scheduled meetings for the ECB is outlined below. Bear in mind that it is theoretically possible, in extraordinary times, for the ECB to hold extra, emergency meetings on top of this schedule.