Big moves yesterday after Draghi’s comments in Sintra. The #ECB dated #OIS curve shifted lower by 5-6.5bp meaning we are now almost pricing a full 10bp cut by September and almost 2 full cuts by July 2020.
An unmistakable new mood of caution seems evident in recent Federal Reserve pronouncements.
The Spanish Supreme Court ended the session on the Spanish mortgage tax (Impuesto sobre Actos Juridicos Documentados) yesterday without reaching a decision. The session will pick up today at 10:00 local. El Pais quotes sources saying that today's session will last for several hours.
President Trump continues, indefatigably, to turn up the heat on the Federal Reserve, but Fed officials have given no indication his harsh criticism will cause the independent central bank to diverge from its plan to keep gradually raising interest rates.
Has the Federal Reserve "gone crazy," as President Trump alleged in the midst of an 832-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and an even bigger percentage drop in the Nasdaq Composite? What is it really up to?
For many, many years the French OAT market has run an Apr/Oct coupon cycle for its bonds and these pay/mature on the 25th. Thus twice per year, there is always large coupons and often a large redemption.
The Volume Activity Charts (VAC) is a tool developed by InTouch Capital Markets to assist with technical analysis. It provides a new overlay to complement more traditional technical analysis techniques by highlighting key areas of recent high volume trading activity. InTouch Capital Markets use VAC as one input into its more comprehensive technical analysis product – the Technical Dashboard - that we produce daily for our Fixed Income clients (sample at bottom – VAC added on the top right)
According to the latest CFTC report on IMM positions, there was no overall trend for the US dollar in the week to Tuesday, October 2. • EURUSD’s fall from above 1.1800 to 1.1500 in the week covered attracted fresh EUR buying. Shorts were maintained, but the net demand resulted in a reduction in the overall short position by EUR610mn to -EUR10.2bn.
Someone suggested to us that BTPs are widening because it is Friday and investors are exposed to headline risks so close long positions...
France is selling a slightly elevated €8-9bn mainly because waiting in the wings is the exceptionally large redemption and coupon payment on Oct 25. A large chunk of the €28bn redemption (coupons do not get reinvested) will be held within the PSPP portfolio and so will need to be reinvested by the ECB back into the French market in the two month period after the redemption.
