With the US election fast approaching on November 3, we lay out guidelines for how FX investors should watch the returns. Our key points are as follows

We recently surveyed clients on expectations around the upcoming US election. This marked the second iteration of our US election survey, with the first having been conducted in early August. The survey was open from 8-12 October and we received more than 50 responses, closely matching the number of responses from our first election survey. Respondents included both US and globally-based investors, surveyed via our distribution channels. The following represent the key findings from our survey:

We are looking for sales consultants to help us introduce our products, and in particular our InTouch FX information service, to institutional clients across the Asia-Pacific region. We recently extended the coverage of our FX service to include Asian markets and hours after hiring two new senior analysts based in Singapore. We are now keen to grow our footprint in the region and show the service to as many relevant potential clients as possible. We strongly believe that we have the best products in their respective sectors. Our FX product has just won Profit and Loss Magazine’s 2020 award for best 3rd Party Research.

The US & Germany 10-30y spreads have been heading in opposing directions for the past week or so. The result has left the US 10-30y spread steeper than in Germany, by around 4bp using the benchmarks.

USTs: At 13:00ET/18:00BST, the Treasury will auction $24bn re-opened 1.625% 8/15/2029s General Views: This week’s supply has been complicated by the looming US/China trade talks and the numerous headlines related to the negotiations. This backdrop may underpin demand for safe assets but makes set-up more difficult and may limit participation at the margin

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund -- the world's largest pension fund -- buys the US dollar/ yen (buy US$/sell yen) and then use those proceeds to buys short-end US Treasuries on an unhedged basis, when the US$/yen is about Y108, and then when the US$/Yen moves up to Y110, it sells both, said observers citing an ongoing practice. That would lock in a 1.85% profit on the foreign exchange side, plus some residual P&L from the USTs movement.

The views of InTouch Capital Markets on the “hawks” and “doves” at the European Central Bank (ECB), the FOMC and the Bank of England (BoE).

There is a relationship that exists across GBP, EUR, USD markets, which is that the 10y swap rate is a linear function of the 5th forward LIBOR and the 5th-9th spread.

ITC - EGB Supply announcements and January syndication patterns

ITC - Quick JGBs - Closing in on zero