The views of InTouch Capital Markets on the hawks and doves at the European Central Bank (ECB), the FOMC and the Bank of England (BoE) and a recap on the current and future voting members. We get asked all the time questions like “is the Fed’s Rosengren a hawk or a dove?”, “who are the doves on the ECB?” and “are the voters on the FOMC this year more dovish or hawkish?”. Here we answer all these questions.
New Absolute Hawk/Dove Scale
We have updated our analysis to introduce a new absolute hawk/dove scale alongside the relative scale we had before, so that it would be easier to understand the position of each central banker. The lowest bound on the scale is 1, indicating “very dovish” members and the upper bound is 5, specifying “very hawkish” members, while 3 represents “no known bias”.
FOMC Hawks, Doves and Voters
FOMC Update – 6th February. No Changes!
In this update, we don’t see any major changes in the FOMC members’ views. The Fed decision to raise the IOER by 5bps didn’t surprise the market, while the most recent comments from Bostic (Atlanta) and Clarida (Vice Chairman) were in line with their views.
ECB Hawks, Doves and Voters
ECB Update – 6th February. What’s Changed?
In this update, we decided to move de Guindos (Vice President) a couple of positions lower, as he sounded a bit hawkish after highlighting that “Risks are less tilted to the downside for the Euro area” and “Monetary policy side effects are becoming more tangible”.
Bank of England (BoE) MPC Hawks, Doves and Voters
BoE Updated – 6th February. What’s Changed?
The recent doves, Tenreyro and Vlieghe, decided to pull back from voting for a cut and consequently we changed their views back to “Dovish” from “Very Dovish”, as is the case for Saunders and Haskel who have already called for rate cuts. The recent monetary policy report suggested that the “Manufacturing indicators and business activity have picked up” following the recent elections and “could support the recovery of UK growth”. Hence, this imminent and significant improvement in the UK data, was enough to persuade the undecided members to leave the cuts off the table.
What is a Central Bank Hawk or Dove?
In general, “hawks” are the members who tend to want tighter monetary policy to temper inflation and growth whilst “doves” tend to want looser monetary policy to support growth and inflation.
Note – InTouch Capital Markets bases its classifications of hawks and doves on recent speeches and voting patterns by the respective members but all views are subjective – very few central bankers actually describe themselves as a hawk or dove. Our views may differ a little from others’. It’s also worth considering that some members tend to stick to being always hawkish or dovish, whilst others tend to be more flexible in their views, switching from time to time.
Authors: Evangelos Doulamis, Michael Colman