The views of InTouch Capital Markets on the hawks and doves at the European Central Bank (ECB), the FOMC and the Bank of England (BoE) and a recap on the current and future voting members. We get asked all the time questions like “is the Fed’s Rosengren a hawk or a dove?”, “who are the doves on the ECB?” and “are the voters on the FOMC this year more dovish or hawkish?”. Here we answer all these questions.
New Absolute Hawk/Dove Scale
We have updated our analysis to introduce a new absolute hawk/dove scale alongside the relative scale we had before, so that it would be easier to understand the position of each central banker. The lowest bound on the scale is 1, indicating “very dovish” members and the upper bound is 5, specifying “very hawkish” members, while 3 represents “no known bias”.
FOMC Hawks, Doves and Voters
FOMC Update – 6th December. What’s Changed?
Only two minor tweaks in this update since the last FOMC Meeting. We brought Kashkari (Minneapolis) one position higher to regain his title as the “most dovish” member, as he sounded concerned about risks surrounding the future of US economy. The other change refers to Daly (San Francisco), whom we moved a couple of positions higher after highlighting that risks are to the downside and more accommodative stance is needed to sustain the expansion.
ECB Hawks, Doves and Voters
ECB Update – 6th December. What’s Changed?
We switched positions between Lane and Hernández de Cos, after the ECB Chief Economist pointed out that “the rate is not at the lower bound” and “the central bank is willing to cut further if needed”. The other tweak refers to Vasle (Slovenia), whom we moved a couple of positions higher, as he sounded more dovish after highlighting that “ECB could increase the volumes and change the conditions for bond purchases”. Finally, Schnabel, the new member of the executive board, sent mixed signals in her latest speech, supporting that “September stimulus can be justified by current inflation data” but also noting that she “would have voted against restarting bond purchases”. As German members are traditional “Hawks”, we decided to move her a couple of positions lower but leave her as “No Known Bias”, until we have a clearer idea of her views.
Bank of England (BoE) MPC Hawks, Doves and Voters
BoE Updated – 6th December. No changes!
After the unexpected votes of Haskel and Saunders to cut rates by 25bps on the last meeting, there aren’t any changes spotted or comments made from the MPC members.
What is a Central Bank Hawk or Dove?
In general, “hawks” are the members who tend to want tighter monetary policy to temper inflation and growth whilst “doves” tend to want looser monetary policy to support growth and inflation.
Note – InTouch Capital Markets bases its classifications of hawks and doves on recent speeches and voting patterns by the respective members but all views are subjective – very few central bankers actually describe themselves as a hawk or dove. Our views may differ a little from others’. It’s also worth considering that some members tend to stick to being always hawkish or dovish, whilst others tend to be more flexible in their views, switching from time to time.
Authors: Evangelos Doulamis, Michael Colman